This Is How the World Ends: The Anatomy of Nuclear War



On June 13, 2025, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, illegally bombing over 100 sites across Iran—including civilian neighborhoods, hospitals, and nuclear facilities. At least 865 people were killed, including 363 civilians, and more than 3,300 were injured. Days later, the United States escalated the assault with Operation Midnight Hammer, targeting Iran’s Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz nuclear sites. Though Washington claims there were “no casualties,” international outrage has intensified.

A UN mission concluded the strikes likely violated international humanitarian law, citing grave breaches of the Geneva Conventions. Independent legal scholars—including Marko Milanović, Kevin Jon Heller, and the International Commission of Jurists—have described Israel’s actions as crimes of aggression under the UN Charter and a major breach of international law.

This essay confronts what these unlawful attacks have set in motion: the immediate global ramifications, the spiraling danger of escalation into world or nuclear war, and, should nuclear escalation occur, a step-by-step technical breakdown of how such a conflict could dismantle human civilization and the biosphere.

Immediate Ramifications


For the West, the bombardment of Iran will appear at first as another sterile military exercise—measured, contained, wrapped in the language of "deterrence." Political leaders will congratulate themselves on demonstrating "resolve." The media will follow suit, rehearsing official statements with the discipline of a state-sanctioned echo chamber. Markets may jitter briefly, then resume their upward march, immunized by decades of war-driven profits.

But this illusion of control is fleeting. The retaliatory spiral has already begun: cyberattacks, proxy strikes, regional unrest. Oil prices spike. Refugee flows surge. U.S. embassies brace for reprisal. Intelligence agencies issue warnings that cannot prevent the consequences they helped set in motion. The very instability the West claims to prevent becomes its own creation.

For the Global South, the message is unmistakable: sovereignty is conditional, resistance is punishable, and international law is a costume worn only by the powerful. Iran is not merely attacked—it is used. Used as a demonstration to others—Venezuela, Cuba, North Korea, any nation not compliant with Western strategic demands. Their takeaway is not deterrence. It is incentive. The only protection is parity, and in today’s world, that means nuclear arms.
 
The Escalation Question: Will This Become World War III?

This is the question dominating minds today. Will this reckless bombing campaign spiral into a regional war—or worse, a global one?

The answer is deeply uncomfortable: not only could it—its architecture is already being built.

Iran has alliances. Iran has proxies. And above all, Iran has its place in a fragile global system where Russia, China, and the United States are locked in a three-way standoff—each paranoid, each armed, and each prepared to invoke “defense” as justification for escalation.

No rational actor wants World War III. But history is not written by rational actors—it is written by the momentum of systems, the inertia of militaries, the self-justifying feedback loops of propaganda and pride. Wars rarely start with announcements. They begin with a normalization of aggression, a climate of retaliation, and the slow death of diplomacy. All three conditions are now in place.

Even without full-scale declarations, we are entering a phase of permanent crisis: open warfare in the Middle East, proxy collisions in Eurasia, economic strangulations framed as “containment,” and cyberwarfare campaigns with plausible deniability. The fuse is lit. The only question is whether it burns slowly or explodes suddenly.
 

Long-Term Ramifications


For the West, every such act accelerates its own decline. Moral legitimacy collapses. Alliances thin. The global order, already fracturing, becomes irreparable. European states face an impossible contradiction: proclaiming values they never enforce, condemning wars they always enable. The U.S., mired in strategic overstretch and domestic decay, becomes a caricature of empire: feared, resented, incapable of introspection.

Meanwhile, China and Russia exploit the chaos—not as saviors, but as opportunists. What collapses is not only Western hegemony, but the very concept of a rules-based world. In its place: fragmented spheres, armed regionalism, and a deep, civilizational distrust that outlives any individual war.

For the world at large, these strikes represent the final collapse of the nuclear nonproliferation regime. Iran will build the bomb. Others will follow. The arms race will not be declared—it will simply proceed, under cover of necessity. Every future conflict, every border tension, every cyber skirmish, will carry the shadow of total annihilation. And all of it will have been lit by the fuse of today’s "surgical" strike.


If the Worst Happens: A Technical Anatomy of Nuclear War


1. Initial Detonation Phase (T + 0 to T + 30 minutes)

Once ICBMs (Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles), SLBMs (Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles), or strategic bombers are deployed, the first strikes would target enemy command-and-control centers, nuclear silos, major military bases, and dense population centers under the doctrine of “counterforce” followed by “countervalue” targeting.

Temperatures at the epicenter of a nuclear blast reach approximately 100 million kelvin, briefly rivaling the core of the sun. Blast overpressure exceeding 20 psi vaporizes everything within a several-kilometer radius. The heat flash induces third-degree burns at distances over 10 kilometers. Electromagnetic pulses (EMPs) disable unshielded electronic infrastructure across entire regions.

Casualty estimates for a full-scale exchange between major nuclear powers (e.g., U.S. and Russia) range from 200 to 600 million deaths within the first hour, primarily from direct blast effects, thermal radiation, and the immediate collapse of urban infrastructure.

2. Secondary Fires and Fallout (T + 30 minutes to T + 72 hours)

Firestorms begin as heat ignites urban fuel loads—wood, asphalt, plastic, gas lines—creating self-sustaining infernos that generate their own wind systems. These fires consume oxygen and produce smoke columns injected into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, bypassing rainfall cleansing.

Simultaneously, radioactive fallout—composed of cesium-137, strontium-90, iodine-131, and other fission products—blankets downwind regions. Acute radiation syndrome (ARS) develops in exposed populations, with LD50 values (lethal dose for 50% of individuals) reached at 3–5 Gray (Gy) within days. Hospitals, already destroyed or overwhelmed, cease to function.

Estimated deaths during this phase range from 100 to 200 million additional fatalities globally—primarily from firestorm asphyxiation, delayed thermal injuries, radiation sickness, and collapse of emergency care.

3. Collapse of Global Infrastructure (T + 3 days to T + 1 month)

Electric grids fail permanently. Communication networks are irrecoverable. Food supply chains collapse within two weeks due to the loss of refrigeration, fuel, transportation, and agricultural coordination. Urban centers descend into anarchy. In the Global South, which may initially escape direct bombing, secondary effects—refugee surges, food scarcity, governance breakdown—create cascading regional crises.

An estimated 500 million to 1 billion people die in this period from starvation, exposure, dehydration, lack of medical care, untreated injuries, and violence in lawless zones. Indirect casualties begin to surpass those from the blasts themselves.

4. Nuclear Winter (T + 1 month to T + 2 years)

The most catastrophic and poorly understood phase begins here. As modeled by Robock et al. (2007) and Coupe et al. (2019), even a limited exchange (e.g., 100–200 nuclear weapons between India and Pakistan) would loft 5–6 million tons of soot into the stratosphere. A U.S.–Russia full-scale exchange would loft 150 million tons or more, blocking up to 70% of sunlight in the Northern Hemisphere.

The result is a rapid global temperature drop of 10 - 15°C, halting photosynthesis, shortening growing seasons, and triggering agricultural collapse. Global grain production would plummet by 90% within the first year. Famine would engulf every continent.

Projected global death toll: 3 to 5 billion from starvation, malnutrition-induced disease, collapse of immune systems, and exposure. No nation remains food-secure.

5. Biological and Genetic Consequences (T + 1 year onward)

High radiation exposure causes mutations in germline DNA, increasing teratogenesis, infertility, and transgenerational genetic damage. Immune systems are compromised. Pathogens once controlled by public health infrastructure begin mutating unchecked, raising the specter of post-apocalyptic pandemics.

Ozone depletion from nitric oxides released in the stratosphere leads to intensified UV-B radiation, causing widespread ecosystem damage, particularly to plankton, the base of the marine food web. Fisheries collapse.

Cumulative toll: an additional 500 million to 1 billion deaths due to delayed cancers, genetic disorders, infections, ecological collapse, and secondary pandemics. Survivors experience profound physiological degradation and generational trauma.

6. Planetary Feedback Loops and Irreversibility (T + 2 years onward)

Earth’s carbon and climate systems are destabilized. Wildfires in surviving biomes inject more aerosols. Permafrost thaws release methane hydrates, contributing to long-term warming after the initial cooling phase. The planet oscillates between deep freeze and runaway warming, depending on feedback dominance.

Civilization, in any recognizable form, does not survive this timeline. Governance, memory, language, and complex coordination are all contingent on stable ecosystems and basic biological health. Both are gone.

Global human survival is reduced to fewer than 100 million individuals, scattered in disconnected agrarian or subsistence communities, lacking infrastructure, medical knowledge, or global cohesion. Over 90% of the human population—roughly 7 billion—will have perished.


A Final Reckoning — Not Fear, But Responsibility


This essay is not written to scare you into paralysis. It is not sensationalism. It is a reckoning. Its purpose is to confront you with a reality that is already unfolding—a reality in which the United States and Israel, operating as rogue states, are accelerating the collapse of international law and dragging the world toward nuclear war.

This is not a time to be merely informed. It is a time to intervene.

Governments must be forced—not asked—to halt arms transfers, sever intelligence ties, sanction Israeli and U.S. leadership, and publicly condemn these illegal strikes as acts of aggression. International legal bodies must initiate prosecution, not wait for permission. Every foreign ministry still pretending neutrality must be confronted with complicity.

And for those outside government: the rest of us. We must shut down the machinery of war with our bodies, our labor, and our refusal. 

This means:

  1. Disrupting weapons shipments through ports, railways, and transit hubs.
  2. Occupying weapons manufacturers and political offices with sustained civil disobedience.
  3. Cutting off financial oxygen through targeted, relentless boycotts and divestment from companies arming or profiting from these attacks.
  4. Refusing to serve: in militaries, in tech sectors, in institutions enabling surveillance or targeting systems.
  5. And organizing for mass strikes and international blockades if escalation continues.

Nothing short of this is proportionate to the danger.

This is not about being informed. It’s about being accountable. Because now we know exactly what will happen if we do nothing—and knowing makes us responsible for what comes next.

History will not forgive our cowardice. And neither will the future.




SOURCES

A. Israel-Iran Conflict & Legal Violations

  1. Business Insider. (2025, June 21). The US military dropped new photos of the Operation Midnight Hammer B-2 Spirit bombers. https://www.businessinsider.com/us-military-photos-show-operation-midnight-hammer-b-2-bombers-2025-6

  2. The Guardian. (2025, June 21). Donald Trump says US has attacked three Iranian nuclear sites and 'totally obliterated' them. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/21/trump-us-nuclear-strikes-iran

  3. Reuters. (2025, June 23). Israeli strikes on Iran may have violated international law, UN mission says. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-strikes-iran-may-have-violated-international-law-un-mission-says-2025-06-23

  4. Financial Times. (2025, June 20). Israel strikes notorious Tehran prison as attacks on Iran intensify. https://www.ft.com/content/1a209166-3ca4-4aab-8e3c-eac046640d02

  5. The Times UK. (2025, June 21). Iran-Israel war latest: Make Iran Great Again or change regime, Trump suggests. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tehran-trump-us-strikes-latest-news-mhnbjpr70

  6. Council on Foreign Relations. (2025). Operation Midnight Hammer and the risks of escalation in Iran. https://www.cfr.org

  7. Sky News. (2025, June 22). US targets Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz: Breakdown of Operation Midnight Hammer. https://www.sky.com/news

  8. Just Security. (2025, June 22). Legal implications of Israeli and US strikes under international humanitarian law. https://www.justsecurity.org

  9. International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC). (2023). Customary IHL: Rules on distinction, proportionality, and precautions. https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/customary-ihl

  10. United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs (UNODA). (2025). Nuclear disarmament and international security in crisis zones. https://www.un.org/disarmament

B. Nuclear War Effects & Technical Modeling

  1. Robock, A., Oman, L., & Stenchikov, G. L. (2007). Nuclear winter revisited with a modern climate model and current nuclear arsenals: Still catastrophic consequences. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 112(D13). https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD008235

  2. Coupe, J., Robock, A., & Toon, O. B. (2019). Nuclear winter responses to nuclear war between the United States and Russia in climate model simulations. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124(15), 8522–8543. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030509

  3. Helfand, I. (2013). Nuclear famine: Two billion people at risk. International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War (IPPNW). https://www.ippnw.org/pdf/nuclear-famine-two-billion-at-risk-2013.pdf

  4. Toon, O. B., Bardeen, C. G., Robock, A., Xia, L., Kristensen, H. M., McKinzie, M., ... & Scherrer, K. (2017). Rapidly expanding nuclear arsenals in Pakistan and India portend regional and global catastrophe. Science Advances, 5(10), eaay5478. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aay5478

  5. World Health Organization (WHO). (2024). Health effects of nuclear war and radiation fallout scenarios. https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/nuclear-war-impact

  6. U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). (2018). Planning guidance for response to a nuclear detonation, 4th edition. https://www.fema.gov

  7. U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO). (2021). The consequences of nuclear war and modernization of arsenals. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57084

  8. ICAN – International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons. (2022). The climate and health consequences of nuclear war. https://www.icanw.org

  9. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). (2021). Environmental and climate feedback loops following global thermonuclear conflict. https://www.unep.org

  10. Bell, M. L., & Davis, D. L. (2001). Reassessment of the lethal dose (LD50) following nuclear exposure and radiation fallout scenarios. Environmental Health Perspectives, 109(6), 653–656. https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.01109653